LNP 0.7%
Incumbent MP
Jason Costigan (NQF), since 2012.
Geography
North Queensland. The seat stretches along the Queensland coast from just north of Mackay to just south of Bowen. It covers parts of Mackay and Whitsunday local government areas, including Cannonvale, Airlie Beach, Proserpine, Calen and some outer northern and western suburbs of Mackay.
History
Whitsunday was created for the 1950 election and was a solid seat for the Country/National party for most of its history.
The seat was held by three MPs from the Country Party or National Party from 1950 until 1989.
In 1989, the ALP won government for the first time in decades under its leader Wayne Goss. In a shock result, Whitsunday was won by the ALP’s Lorraine Bird.
Bird held the seat throughout the Goss government. She was defeated in 1998 by One Nation’s Harry Black. Black left One Nation in 1999 and helped found the City Country Alliance that year.
In 2001, Black ran as the City Country Alliance candidate, but was defeated by the ALP’s Jan Jarrett. Jarrett was re-elected in 2004, 2006 and 2009, and was appointed as Minister for Tourism, Manufacturing and Small Business in February 2011.
In 2012, Labor MP Jan Jarrett was defeated by LNP candidate Jason Costigan. Costigan was narrowly re-elected in 2015 and 2017.
Costigan was suspended from the LNP in early 2019. He went on to sit in parliament as an independent, and formed the North Queensland First party later that year.
Candidates
- Paul Hilder (Legalise Cannabis)
- Amanda Camm (Liberal National)
- Greg Armstrong (United Australia)
- Emma Barrett (Greens)
- Angie Kelly (Labor)
- Deb Lawson (One Nation)
- Jason Costigan (North Queensland First)
- Ciaron Paterson (Katter’s Australian)
Assessment
Whitsunday has been a very close seat in both 2015 and 2017. It is only likely to get more complex with Costigan now running for his own minor party. The seat is also a strong one for One Nation. All of this is a recipe for a fragmented primary vote and a complex preferential count. It could also mean that Labor is well placed with the conservative vote split between Costigan, One Nation and the LNP.
2017 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Jason Costigan | Liberal National | 8,774 | 32.2 | -9.5 |
| Bronwyn Taha | Labor | 8,503 | 31.2 | -4.7 |
| Noel Skippen | One Nation | 5,471 | 20.1 | +20.1 |
| Jenny Whitney | Katter’s Australian Party | 2,499 | 9.2 | +9.2 |
| Imogen Lindenberg | Greens | 1,562 | 5.7 | -0.9 |
| Dan Van Blarcom | Independent | 477 | 1.7 | +1.7 |
| Informal | 1,147 | 4.0 |
2017 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Jason Costigan | Liberal National | 13,829 | 50.7 | +0.1 |
| Bronwyn Taha | Labor | 13,457 | 49.3 | -0.1 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Whitsunday have been divided into three areas. Polling places on the outskirts of Mackay have been grouped, with the remainder split into centre and north.
The LNP won a sizeable 56.6% majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the centre of the seat, while Labor won in the north (51%) and in the Mackay area (53.7%). The LNP narrowly won the pre-poll vote, which made up about 40% of the total vote, and won the other votes by a larger margin.
One Nation came third, with a primary vote ranging from 18.5% in the north to 22.2% in the centre.
| Voter group | ON prim | LNP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Mackay | 18.8 | 46.3 | 6,211 | 22.8 |
| North | 18.5 | 49.0 | 4,298 | 15.8 |
| Central | 22.2 | 56.6 | 2,586 | 9.5 |
| Pre-poll | 20.3 | 51.4 | 10,864 | 39.8 |
| Other votes | 21.9 | 54.2 | 3,327 | 12.2 |
Election results in Whitsunday at the 2017 QLD state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and One Nation primary votes.
Amanda Camm (the LNP candidate) ran here for KAP in 2012 – came third with 22%. Just in case this seat wasn’t confusing enough already…
Ah you beat me to first comment 😛 glad they’re open on this electorate.
@BoP, I was unaware of that in what already is quite a fascinating seat.
Biggest campaign news of the past month was that the ALP Candidate was pushed and replaced by a ‘Captains Pick.’ “https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-26/qld-premiers-captains-pick-sees-two-labor-branches-close/12597176” is the article for reference, with the former ALP Candidate now campaigning for the KAP Candidate. I had previously posted on Poll-bludger about my earlier prediction of NQF Retain, despite Costigans ‘sleaziness’, the locals seem to love him. However, with the above change for ALP and already with a swing on in the regions, their vote will plummet. Question now is who benefits and when the merry-go-round of musical chairs stops, who will be victorious out of LNP, NQF, ONP, KAP or even maybe PUP! This electorate, like Townsville, has the most confirmed candidates so far with 7. (As at 4/9/20)
Prediction (August 2020): TOSS-UP – NQF Lean
Labor will probably be in 3rd or 4th place here. But i highly doubt Costigan holds on. I see him as another Fraser Anning who will quickly fade away after the election, It’s like Terry Mills,Nick Xenophon and all. allot of people predicted them to win their seats even here, But they ended up losing. Minor parties seem to be overstated allot. I think the LNP will hold this one (From the last election so it would be considered an LNP recovery if anything) There is no way PUP does well. PUP vote will be down from the federal election. People don’t like Palmer at all. especially what hes been saying with the border closures lately. Palmer won’t affect the outcome of this seat or the election and nor will Mr.Costigans party. It will all come down the Green and One nation preferences in the southeast and Katters and One Nation in the regions.
Camm. Also served as Mackay’s deputy mayor up until the council elections and stepped down to run here. So she should go well in the south of the seat which are the northern suburbs of Mackay and the outlying rural areas of that council.
I’ve met her a few times too. Seems very impressive and ministerial material.
camm related to Ron Camm prev nat mp?
Yes she is
Agree, she’s a very impressive candidate for the LNP and if they win, she would be looked at for some position I’d imagine.
I doubt if Ron Camm would have still been in LNP. I would think he would have joined Katter or possibly the other way. Amanda Camm should be in KAP rather than in Libs.
@ Daniel
I don’t think Labor will finish third or fourth. Labor wouldn’t have gone to all that trouble to replace the candidate if they weren’t in the race. However, the fall out over the changing the candidate that doesn’t have branch members support definitely will harm their chances. LNP are definitely favorites to win the seat and Jason Costigan won’t be in the final two party preferred in my opinion. It will be a Labor vs LNP two party preferred contest.
Also Politics Obsessed the ABC article states the former Labor candidate for Whitsundays Tracy Cameron has ‘endorsed’ the Katter Australia Party candidate. It doesn’t say that she will campaign for him.
@Political Nightwatchman re: well I’ll go in-between, she’s definitely helping him, as in her words ‘he was the best choice for the community’ and didn’t want to support the ONP candidate as they were running because they wanted to be a career politician. That’s straight from the horses mouth. I should have made the distinction between the article and the local knowledge I had.
I guess LNP are favourites to pick up their former seat, but it really isn’t that clear cut. I still see it as a 4-horse race between LNP/NQF/KAP/ONP. True there are more outs for the LNP to win (NQF and ONP out will give a high % of prefs to LNP) but there’s a chance with the ALP vote plummeting and their prefs more likely going KAP or maybe ONP, that one could snowball preferences across (a la KAP in Hinchinbrook 2017). That might even save Costigan. PUP hasn’t been campaigning as much in this seat, but their preferences will be a bonus to LNP, but can see them taking crucial votes off all of them [LNP/NQF/KAP/ONP]. I’m keeping a close eye on the campaigns, but it really is still early to call.
Well I think this is the most interesting thing I’ve seen this campaign in Whitsunday:
https://www.facebook.com/7NEWSMackay/videos/351496785970277/
The KAP is definitely getting out there. Nick Xenophon would be proud stunt-wise though.
This one and a few others are obvious KAP targets. Robbie Katter has grown into a mature leader and is looking to build a bigger team around him and this election is one which should give him that opportunity. ON might have a larger state based vote but KAP has the numbers where it needs them.
September prediction: LNP gain but it will be schmozzle counting this one.
Given the split in the vote on the right, inevitably Labor will come first on primary votes. The question then becomes who finishes second and whether the compulsory preference flows can push them into a winning position.
Realistically the LNP candidate and then Costigan are far and away the most likely of all the candidates who could come second on primary vote. Given their toxic relationship it is difficult to see preferences flowing strongly from Costigan to the LNP or vice versa to deliver victory.
Definitely a potential Labor gain.
Look how split.. Primary different 1% 2pp close to that which means press are roughly 50/50
Preferences
Sportsbet has LNP $1.85, North Queensland First $2.00, and Labor $5.00. From these odds you would have to suggest it would be a LNP vs Jason Costigan two party preferred match up. Which may then come down to where those Labor preferences will go to decide the seat.
However, Sportsbet are not always right in these races with independent/minor party candidates three way races. Especially considering Costigan is untried on his own as a minor party MP in terms of elections. In 2015 the best odds were independent Chris Foley and the LNP on who would win the seat of Maryborough. Labor’s Bruce Saunders was long odds but ended up winning the seat.
I still think Labor can possibly finish in the final two party preferred vote but not necessary win the seat though.
I think it may be difficult for Labor to preference Costigan considering how they attacked him in parliament. But who knows – politics can trump consistent standards.
I was really surprised to see Jason’s odds so high in this seat. I think the LNP will win fairly comfortably and that Jason will struggle to hit a double digit primary vote.
This isn’t the election for minor parties. I think PHON will again finish third here with their preferences helping deliver victory to the LNP.
Costigan struggled to hold the seat under the LNP banner in 2017-IMO not popular enough to win it under his own banner. LNP win most likely
Katter Party candidate is enjoying a #2 preference from Labor, PHON and Jason Costigan.
It will be interesting to see if this will help their candidate leapfrog PHON into third place (assuming Costigan finishes further down the pack). If he does leapfrog PHON, he could go onto win with PHON and Labor preferences.
the LNP is getting preferences from Palmer.
Angie Kelly, Labor candidate has as much chance of winning this seat as anyone else.
She is well known in the North of the electorate as the Principal of Cannonvale state school. People here have seen how hard Angie has worked to receive funding for the school, over 15 million for new buildings, and made the school what it is today.
I voted LNP the last 2 tems, but Angie Kelly and Labor have my vote this time.
Political Nightwatchmen .. The Sports bet odds would be a based on the idea that either LNP or Costigan would be in a battle with Labor and whichever of the two gets second spot would win the seat.
There have been issues at McKay pre-poll booths in regards to the display of candidates apparel and what not being banned. I am aware of complaints that have been send to ECQ and also know Stephen Andrew (MP ONP-Mirani) has been at pre-polls has has been frustrated, like the other candidates, also in the selection of pre-poll places for McKay. I’m hearing from this, it’s been choas trying to help voters work out which electorate they are in and information on who to vote for (as these booths cover, McKay, southern end of Whitsunday and northern end of Mirani).
Nevertheless, word from those I’ve spoken to at the pre-polls is that it looks like Mirani is firm for ONP, Mackay may JUST hold for ALP and Whitsunday is still close.
[Ps: Dual posted on other seat profiles that have been referenced and separate discussions on those seats.]
Whitsunday specific: have heard a couple of stories of Jason Costigan absolutely loosing it this week. (I won’t add here as we know of his colourful stories.) The point being is he knows he won’t be winning and my local sources reckon he could fly off the handle more. I can’t see NQF or ALP winning this and put the contest realistically down to LNP vs KAP. Big call I know. Most of the One Nation voters, as mentioned in the above pre-poll comment, seem to be for Mirani and not Whitsunday. KAP is apparently doing well at northern end of electorate, but so is the LNP. LNP seem to be doing better at the southern end pre-poll.
I have this one down as a TOSS-UP (Lean LNP ‘Retain’) but could also be easily a KAP Gain. So close but won’t make a final prediction until next Friday once I’ve spoken to my local sources again 🙂
@Politics_Obsessed Interesting. I was ultimately expecting this to come down to an LNP vs LAB contest, although the Katter’s performing well here doesn’t surprise me at all.
Their strategy of fielding only a dozen or so candidates and focusing heavily on winning those specific electorates rather than nearly nominating for all seats (as ONP have done) seems to be paying off.
KAP strategy may pay off in State elections but it has a devastating effect in Senate Elections. Standing in 12 seats means KAP develops a party infrastricture that covers 12/90 of State. To gain a quota at a normal half senate election means increasing Percentage required for a single Quota from 15.2% of State vote to nearly 100% of Katter country. Other significant disadvantage if only standing where you want to win means you have nothing to negotiate with over preferences. If you expect to get 48% of Vote in electorate M and 4% in electorates A, B and C your 4% is a valuable bargaining chip in A, B and C. Whilst insignificant to minor party gaining these 4% of votes they are tradable for the 2% needed to get your candidate elected in M.
Don’t think for one moment that Major party negotiators are not aware of this. I can assure you I have been told this by Major Party negotiators. Do not think that they have not negotiated they have done so.
In last 13 years I have been involved in at least half a dozen negotiations with all existing parties other than Greens.
No candidates who you think will lose means nothing to trade. Nothing to trade means no benefit can be obtained.
Prediction: Too Close to Call – Lean LNP Gain
Final Prediction: A nightmare count but LNP to eventually win after days, maybe weeks of counting.
LNP gain due to good candidate, anti Labor feeling up north plus local tourism industry issues during Covid, but I expect an exhausting preference count before it is declared.
Too close to call
Labor have preference the LNP higher then Jason Costigan in this seat. I’m not sure this matters too much though as I think KAP is a bigger threat then Costigan to the LNP. Which Labor have not surprisingly preference KAP higher then the LNP. Its still may be a factor in terms of the countback in preferences. The LNP have preference Labor last.